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Voters favor Davis ouster
Added Democratic Party campaign adviser Bob Mulholland: "We just have to shift five or six points. We will do that."
DiCamillo cautioned the governor's supporters against overconfidence, however.
Overall, sentiment has built against Davis since Issa began pumping $1.5 million into the recall campaign. In April, and again this month, pollsters asked registered voters how they would vote in a recall, regardless of their propensity to vote.
Among registered voters, support shot from 46 percent to 54 percent over the three-month period. Davis' approval rating was 23 percent in the latest Field Poll, released Tuesday.
"The wind is not blowing at Davis' back here," DiCamillo said. "It's in his face. He has to arrest that trend and turn it around."
DiCamillo also said results could turn on partisan turnout -- 81 percent of Republicans said they back a recall, while 69 percent of Democrats oppose it -- and timing.
"If there's a fall recall, there's very little time for Davis to rehabilitate his image with voters," DiCamillo said. "He needs the passage of time and good news to start permeating into California."
Issa and last year's Green Party gubernatorial nominee, Peter Camejo, are the only declared candidates. But Schwarzenegger, currently on a tour to promote "Terminator 3," is considering a candidacy. So is last year's GOP gubernatorial nominee, investor Bill Simon; state Sen. Tom McClintock of Simi Valley; and Riordan, who lost to Simon in the primary. Most prominent Democrats have pledged not to run.
Asked to name their first choice among replacements, 21 percent of likely voters chose Riordan. Schwarzenegger drew 15 percent; Simon, 12 percent; Camejo, 8 percent; McClintock, 7 percent; and Issa, 4 percent.
Democrats have focused their attacks on Issa, who, more than two decades ago, was charged with car theft but never convicted.
Issa's campaign manager, Scott Taylor, said the congressman's standing in the poll reflected Davis' "slime attack" and a lack of name recognition by voters outside Issa's district.
"They just don't know him," Taylor said. "Name ID can be improved with time and money, and Congressman Issa has both."
The poll found Riordan and Schwarzenegger share many fans and that either could gain four or five percentage points if the other stayed out of the race. Advisers say the two have discussed the likelihood that only one of them would run.
Still, 53 percent of likely voters were "not inclined" to support Riordan; Schwarzenegger's "not inclined" rating was 62 percent.
Forty-two percent of Democrats said their first choice for a replacement was a category dubbed "Someone else/None."
DiCamillo said that could hurt Davis by tempting his colleagues to break their pledges and run.
"Maybe the Democrats will hold the party line, but in politics, usually someone steps in to fill a vacuum," he said. "For an ambitious Democrat, there's an opportunity there."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- About the Writer ---------------------------
The Bee's Margaret Talev can be reached at (916) 326-5540 or mtalev@sacbee.com.
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